الف. منابع فارسی
- بهشتی، محمدباقر و زالی، نادر (1390)، شناسایی عوامل کلیدی توسعه منطقهای با رویکرد برنامهریزی بر پایه سناریو، مطالعه موردی: استان آذربایجان شرقی، فصلنامه برنامهریزی و آمایش فضا (مدرس علوم انسانی). 15(1).
- زالی، نادر (1388)، آیندهنگاری توسعه منطقهای با رویکرد برنامهریزی سناریومبنا (نمونه موردی: استان آذربایجان شرقی)، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه تبریز.
- زارع میرکآباد، علی (1395)، ارائه یک ابر روش برای توسعه سناریو مبتنی بر دیدگاهها (مطالعه موردی: صنعت هوایی ایران در افق 1404)، پایاننامة دکترا، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران.
- شوارتز، پیتر (1387)، هنر دورنگری: برنامهریزی برای آینده در دنیایی با عدم قطعیت (ترجمه عزیز علیزاده). تهران: مؤسسه آموزشی و تحقیقاتی صنایع دفاعی.
- علیزاده، علی؛ وحیدی مطلق، وحید؛ امیر ناظمی (1389)، سناریونگاری یا برنامهریزی بر پایه سناریوها، تهران: مؤسسه مطالعات بینالمللی انرژی.
ب. منابع انگلیسی
- Aloui, C., Jammazi, R.(2009). The Effects of Crude Oil Shocks on Stock Market Shifts Behavior: A Regimes Witching Approach. Energy Economics 31(5), pp.789–799.
- Aloui, C., Jammazy, R., Dhakhlaoui, I. (2008). “Crude Oil Volatility and Stock Market Returns”. Journal of Energy Markets 1, pp.69–96.
- Ansoff, I. (1975). Managing strategic surprise by response to weak signals. California Management Review, 18 (2), 21-33. Retrieved from
- Bell, W.,(1997). Foundations of Futures Studies: Human science for a new era, vol. 1: History, purposes and knowledge, Third printing 2000 ed, Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick NJ.
- Bishop, P; Hines, A; Collins, T; (2007). The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques; foresight; VOL. 9 NO. 1 2007, pp. 5-25
- Borjeson, L. Ho jer, M. Dreborg, K. Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. (2006). Scenario types and techniques: towards a user’s guide, Futures.
- Bradfield, R. Wright, G. Burt, G. Cairns, G. and Van Der Heijden, K. (2005). The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning, Futures, Vol. 37, pp. 795-812.
- Cologni, A., Manera, M., (2009). The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: a Markov-Switching Analysis for G7 Countries. Economic Modelling 26, 1–29.
- Dewar, J. A. (2002). Assumption-based planning: A tool for reducing avoidable surprises. Cambridge UK: Cambridge Press.
- Liam,F ; Randall,R,M (1998). Learning form the Future; Competitive Foresight Scenarios; New York: John Wiley and Sons.
- Godet, M. (2006). Creating Futures: Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool, France, Economica publish.
- Godet, M. Roubelat, F. (1996): Creating the future: The use and misuse of scenarios, in: Long Range Planning, Vol. 29, No.2, 1996
- Inayatullah, S, (1990). Deconstructing and reconstructing the future: predictive, cultural and critical epistemologies, Futures 22 (2) (1990) 115–141٫
- Klir, G. ; Wierman, M. (1999). Uncertainty-based information: Elements of generalized information theory (2nd ed). Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag.
- Mannermaa, M. Futures research and social decision making: alternative futures as a case study, Futures 18 (5) (1986) 658–670٫
- Marien, M., Futures studies in the 21st Century: a reality based view, Futures 34 (3–4) (2002) 261–281٫
- Millett, S. (2003). The future of scenarios: challenges and opportunities, Strategy & Leadership, Vol. 31 2, pp. 16-24.
- Millett, S.(2003). The future of scenarios: challenges and opportunities, Strategy and Leadership 32 (2) 16–24٫
- Milliken, F. J. (1987). Three types of perceived uncertainty about the environment: State, effect, and response uncertainty. The Academy of Management Review, 12 (1), 133-143. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/257999
- Moyer, K.(1996). Scenario planning at British Airways – a case study, Long Range Planning 29 (1996) 172–181٫
- Porter, M (1985); Competitive Advantage; New York: The Free Press.
- Reibstein, D. J. & Chussil, M. J. (2004). Putting the lesson before the test: Using simulation to analyze and develop competitive strategies, in G.S. Day & D. J. Reibstein (eds.), Wharton on competitive strategy (pp. 395-425). New York: John Wiley & Sons.
- Schwartz, P. (1991). The Art of the Long View, Doubleday/Currency, New York, NY.
- Schwartz, P. (1991). The Art of The Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. New York: Currency Doubleday.
- Van Notten, P. Rotmans, J. van Asselt, M. and Rothman, D. (2003). An updated scenario typology, Futures, Vol. 35, pp. 423-43.
- Van Notten, P.W.F., J. Rotmans, M.B.A. van Asselt, D.S. Rothman(2003). An updated scenario typology, Futures 35 (5) (2003) 423–443
- Varum, C; Melo, C (2010). Directions in scenario planning literature – A review of the past decades, Futures, 42 (2010) 355–369
- Wang, J .,.Zhu, S. , Zhao, W.,&Wen,J. (2011). Optimal parameters estimation and inputsubset for grey model based on chaotic particle swarm optimization algorithm, .Expert system with Applications, 38: 8151-8158.
- Weimer-Jehle, W. (2006). Cross impact (CIB), science direct, Technological forecasting& social change, vol 73, pp334-361.
- Weimer-Jehle, W. (2008). Cross-impact balances, Applying pair interaction systems and multi-value Kauffman nets to multidisciplinary systems analysis” science direct, Phisica A , 387 , PP3689-3700.
- Weimer-Jehle, W. (2008). Scenario wizard Basic2.3, Manual, university of Stuttgart.
- William J. F. (2007). Screening the Brighter Tomorrow Urban Utopias in Contemporary Cinema, International making cities livable conference, Portland: Oregan.
- Wolfgang, W.J. & Weimer, T. (2006). Cross Impact Balance (CIB), Science Direct, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, Vol. 73.
- Ye M,, Zyren J,, Shore J, (2005). A monthly crude oil spot price forecasting model using relative inventories, International Journal of Forecasting, vol 21, pp 491– 501.
|
